Indonesia breaths a sigh of relief. Hopefully, it remains this way.
The Indonesian meteorology and geophysics agency said on Friday a small tsunami set off by a massive quake in Japan reached Indonesia's eastern coastline without causing any damage.
"A tsunami of only 10 centimetres triggered by the earthquake in Japan was detected in the North Sulawesi and Maluku islands," the agency's official Rachmat told AFP.
"We have just lifted the tsunami alert in Indonesia."
Indonesia's Foreign Ministry reported that it was looking into the whereablouts and possible needs of its citizens currently in Japan. Ministry data showed that 31,517 Indonesians are in Japan now.
Friday, March 11, 2011
Wednesday, March 2, 2011
Grow With Indonesia, a 3G (global growth generator)
Citi Global Economics has just issued a fascinating report that changes the vocabulary for looking at economic growth and investment potential. Written by Chief Economists Willem Buiter and Ebrahim Rahbari, with input from a team of 50 Citi economists from around the world, the report is on one hand a highly optimistic forecast for the next 40 years as well as a primer on what a country can do to fulfill its destiny. Indonesia's path to consistent high growth is a narrow one but they can get there. (Click Here to read the full report)
A few "pearls" from the report:
Now that Emerging Markets have already emerged, and the BRICs have plenty of company, Citi has identified a new paradigm in global markets- "3G" countries or Global Growth Generators. 3Gs are the "global sources of growth potential and of profitable investment opportunities." It identifies developing Asia and Africa as the 3G regions and specifies Indonesia and 10 others as the 3G countries. Not just applicable to regions and countries, Citi emphasizes that "cities, commodities, asset classes, activities, and products" can all be considered 3Gs. This is a useful change in the framework of investment analysis in an interconnected world where cities and corporate sectors are beginning to have more in common with their brethren across the globe than with their own country. Citi argues that the 3G countries are reaching a critical stage of development where the level of political stability and capital formation has risen to the point where high sustained growth will be the norm in these regions for the next 40 years. By Citi's projections, Developing Asia will constitute 50% of the world's economy by 2050. North America's share will have dropped from 25% to 11%, and Western Europe's from 24% to 7%. Africa's economy will be larger, at 12%. Certainly, investors can't afford to ignore the 3Gs.
Excerpt from Indonesia section
"Indonesia's predicted growth rate of per capita income from 2010 to 2050 is 5.6% per annum. As early as 2040 it will join the ranks of the world's top 10 economies and by 2040 it will rank fourth behind India, China, and the US. It currently ranks 50th in real per capita income, with a 2010 real per capita income level of US$4,362, so there is plenty of potential for catch-up and convergence. Indonesia's large population (233 million in 2010) is predicted to rise to 288 million in 2050. Its population of working age is expected to increase by 17.9 percent over the same period. Thus, demographics are a factor that should be working in Indonesia's favor to achieve China-like growth rates over the next 40 years."
A few "pearls" from the report:
- India overtakes China as the world's largest economy by 2050
- Indonesia will become the 4th largest economy by 2040.
- Water will be a 3G (global growth generator)
- For poor countries with large young populations, growing fast should be easy
- Developing Asia will have 50% of world GDP by 2050
- Asia's growth will be 6.2% until 2030 vs Developed World 1.5-2%
- Indonesia's road to high growth is a narrow one (see hurdles section below)
Now that Emerging Markets have already emerged, and the BRICs have plenty of company, Citi has identified a new paradigm in global markets- "3G" countries or Global Growth Generators. 3Gs are the "global sources of growth potential and of profitable investment opportunities." It identifies developing Asia and Africa as the 3G regions and specifies Indonesia and 10 others as the 3G countries. Not just applicable to regions and countries, Citi emphasizes that "cities, commodities, asset classes, activities, and products" can all be considered 3Gs. This is a useful change in the framework of investment analysis in an interconnected world where cities and corporate sectors are beginning to have more in common with their brethren across the globe than with their own country. Citi argues that the 3G countries are reaching a critical stage of development where the level of political stability and capital formation has risen to the point where high sustained growth will be the norm in these regions for the next 40 years. By Citi's projections, Developing Asia will constitute 50% of the world's economy by 2050. North America's share will have dropped from 25% to 11%, and Western Europe's from 24% to 7%. Africa's economy will be larger, at 12%. Certainly, investors can't afford to ignore the 3Gs.
Excerpt from Indonesia section
"Indonesia's predicted growth rate of per capita income from 2010 to 2050 is 5.6% per annum. As early as 2040 it will join the ranks of the world's top 10 economies and by 2040 it will rank fourth behind India, China, and the US. It currently ranks 50th in real per capita income, with a 2010 real per capita income level of US$4,362, so there is plenty of potential for catch-up and convergence. Indonesia's large population (233 million in 2010) is predicted to rise to 288 million in 2050. Its population of working age is expected to increase by 17.9 percent over the same period. Thus, demographics are a factor that should be working in Indonesia's favor to achieve China-like growth rates over the next 40 years."
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