2001 Redux ?
In 2001, Indonesia’s President, Abdurrahman Wahid, lost a no confidence vote in the National Assembly (MPR) and he resigned just 18 months into his 5 year term. His Vice President, Megawati Soekarnoputri –whom Wahid had edged out in indirect Presidential elections -- completed his term. Many believe that “dark forces” --allied with former President Soeharto and Megawati’s husband-- opposed to Wahid’s reforms conspired to essentially impeach him.
Are similar forces gathering today -- in the wake of the Bank Century bailout scandal-- to unseat President SBY and his government ?. I don’t think so but judging from the commentaries in Indonesia’s press there are some in Jakarta and elsewhere who aren’t so sure. Before we start moving our money or canceling our business plans lets take stock of what is before us.
Indonesia is a different place now than it was in 2001. Its electoral system has been radically altered: Presidents are now directly elected, and are not as subject to Parliamentary recall as they had been. Her people are much more politically astute, having lived with a free press (a very raucous one I might add) for many years now. Its unlikely that some collection of forces, even those with deep pockets, could buy the support that would be necessary to bring down a government. Internet social networking tools such as Facebook represent new avenues of protest and social action. No matter what the actual legal parameters are, a bailout is a judgement call. Hindsight is always 20-20. Boediono and Sri Mulyani were part of the decision to bailout but not involved with technical details that are open to further questions following a preliminary government audit.
The Bank Century affair is revealing a rift, never a secret, that had developed during SBY’s first term between Sri Mulyani and businessman and former minister, Aburizal Bakrie. Its easy to connect calls for her resignation to him. She was hard on the group after a major mud volcano erupted at one of its drilling sites (Lapindo) and did not allow the temporary suspension of trading of the shares of its flagship enterprise, Bumi Resources. However, you could also argue that there are many opportunists in Parliament whose stock-in-trade is political grandstanding who could just as easily be making noise independent of Bakrie and the political party he heads, Golkar. Besides, given the Bakrie group’s need to raise capital for their expanding mining operations, it would not be in their interest to foment a controversy just to get back at Sri Mulyani. They have plenty of smart people who understand that their costs of funds would rise immediately upon her resignation.
Are there legitimate questions that can be asked about the bailout ? Yes. The public deserves to know more about how funds were handled after the bank was bailed out (similar questions are being asked of banks worldwide), especially if there were illegal transfers. The House inquiry must be transparent. Is there a political challenge to SBY’s coalition ? Yes, but its too soon to say its completely destroyed. Is there deal-making going on between legislators and the executive branch. One would assume so; perhaps Indonesians are looking at the US health bill machinations for inspiration. For many of us, Indonesia is a much noisier place than it was a generation ago and we can live with that, just adjust your noise-cancelling headphones. Meanwhile, the focus must return to the economy and how to clear obstacles to job creation and investment in infrastructure.
