For those familiar with Indonesian politics Golkar is the party
synonymous with Indonesia’s economic development. More than a just a
political party, Golkar was an amalgamation of various “functional
groups” (military, government bureaucrats, farmer’s organizations, etc.)
that implemented the New Order government’s economic agenda. Golkar was
engineered to be a partner of the government and held a virtual 2/3’s
majority in Parliament for 35 years. In the reform era that followed
President Suharto’s momentous 1998 resignation Golkar has not held the
same sway within the government. Its share of seats in Parliament have
fallen below 20%, although it remains the second largest party. Most of
its members, but not necessarily its leadership, still want to be
partners with the government; its in the party’s DNA. So when chairman
Aburizal Bakrie unilaterally backed Prabowo Subianto’s losing coalition
in 2014 and declared the party to be in the opposition part of Golkar
rebelled. Since then infighting has rendered Golkar ineffective and
currently few Ministerial posts are held by Golkar members. But through a
process of internal reconciliation Golkar has been revived and now
wants back into the government. If Golkar’s (and Bakrie’s) intentions
are purely benign--meaning it will support President Jokowi’s reform
plan--this could be a boon for Indonesia. However, that may not be the
case.
On May 16 Golkar held an extraordinary Congress that brought
together the rival camps and elected Setya Novanto Chairman. Novanto
was recently forced to resign as Speaker of Parliament over secret
recordings that implicate him in an alleged shakedown of Freeport
Indonesia. (Prosecutors are still investigating the case) His successor
Ade Komarrudin ran a close second. Golkar also resurrected its
influential Guidance Board (abandoned after 1998) and elected Bakrie its
chairman. Agung Laksono, a proponent of new leadership and reform who
was Bakrie’s chief rival within Golkar, is not challenging this move.
Other key Golkar posts went to Bakrie supporters who were clearly the
big winners. The Indonesian press reported that Novanto was backed by
Luhut Pandjaitan, a Golkar member who was an early backer of Jokowi and
is currently Coordinating Minister for Politics and Security. On the
other hand Vice President Jusuf Kalla, also a Golkar member, backed
Komaruddin.
A week after the Congress Novanto announced that
Golkar had rescinded its 2014 declaration of support for Prabowo’s
opposition coalition. Novanto said: “Golkar will work with the
government. We will support the programs of the government.” Bakrie
said, “Our expertise is in handling authority – not in mounting
resistance to authority.” On May 24th 6 Golkar leaders including Novanto
and Bakrie met President Jokowi. Although they professed not to be
seeking any ministerial posts the timing was not lost on most observers
who have been hearing rumors of a Cabinet reshuffle for several weeks.
It
may be too early to speculate on what all of this means but several
possible outcomes seem reasonable. Golkar, having observed that
President Jokowi has distanced himself from his patron Megawati, (head
of the PDI-P, still the most popular party) may be positioning itself to
take him in or at least nominate him for reelection in 2019. (One mid
level Golkar official actually said as much.) At a minimum Golkar would
expect to receive one or more ministerial posts. It may also have
bargained for some protection from one or more of the investigations
currently under way of several of its high profile members (including
Bakrie and Novanto).
On paper President Jokowi now has over 60% of
the seats of Parliament in his coalition which should help his
legislative agenda such as the long-awaited tax amnesty bill. He has
artfully watched his rivals bicker among themselves, saying little,
meanwhile pursuing his agenda. There seems to be a steely strength
behind his actions over the first 18 months of his administration.
Golkar may be patting itself on the back for what it may think is its
improved position but the President may see a wolf in sheep’s clothing.
It remains to be seen how much of Jokowi’s reform program Golkar will
embrace.
Friday, June 3, 2016
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